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Oceanic Controls on the Primary Production of the Northwest European Continental Shelf: Model Experiments Under Recent Past Conditions and a Potential Future Scenario : Volume 9, Issue 1 (06/01/2012)

By Holt, J.

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Book Id: WPLBN0003983234
Format Type: PDF Article :
File Size: Pages 21
Reproduction Date: 2015

Title: Oceanic Controls on the Primary Production of the Northwest European Continental Shelf: Model Experiments Under Recent Past Conditions and a Potential Future Scenario : Volume 9, Issue 1 (06/01/2012)  
Author: Holt, J.
Volume: Vol. 9, Issue 1
Language: English
Subject: Science, Biogeosciences
Collections: Periodicals: Journal and Magazine Collection, Copernicus GmbH
Historic
Publication Date:
2012
Publisher: Copernicus Gmbh, Göttingen, Germany
Member Page: Copernicus Publications

Citation

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Wakelin, S. L., Allen, J. I., Artioli, Y., Holt, J., & Butenschön, M. (2012). Oceanic Controls on the Primary Production of the Northwest European Continental Shelf: Model Experiments Under Recent Past Conditions and a Potential Future Scenario : Volume 9, Issue 1 (06/01/2012). Retrieved from http://kindle.worldlibrary.net/


Description
Description: National Oceanography Centre, 6 Brownlow Street, Liverpool, L3 5DA, UK. In this paper we clearly demonstrate that changes in oceanic nutrients are a first order factor in determining changes in the primary production of the northwest European continental shelf on time scales of 5–10 yr. We present a series of coupled hydrodynamic ecosystem modelling simulations, using the POLCOMS-ERSEM system. These are forced by both reanalysis data and a single example of a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (OA-GCM) representative of possible conditions in 2080–2100 under an SRES A1B emissions scenario, along with the corresponding present day control. The OA-GCM forced simulations show a substantial reduction in surface nutrients in the open-ocean regions of the model domain, comparing future and present day time-slices. This arises from a large increase in oceanic stratification. Tracer transport experiments identify a substantial fraction of on-shelf water originates from the open-ocean region to the south of the domain, where this increase is largest, and indeed the on-shelf nutrient and primary production are reduced as this water is transported on-shelf. This relationship is confirmed quantitatively by comparing changes in winter nitrate with total annual nitrate uptake. The reduction in primary production by the reduced nutrient transport is mitigated by on-shelf processes relating to temperature, stratification (length of growing season) and recycling. Regions less exposed to ocean-shelf exchange in this model (Celtic Sea, Irish Sea, English Channel, and Southern North Sea) show a modest increase in primary production (of 5–10%) compared with a decrease of 0–20% in the outer shelf, Central and Northern North Sea. These findings are backed up by a boundary condition perturbation experiment and a simple mixing model.

Summary
Oceanic controls on the primary production of the northwest European continental shelf: model experiments under recent past conditions and a potential future scenario

Excerpt
Allen, J. I., Blackford, J., Holt, J. T., Proctor, R., Ashworth, M., and Siddorn, J.: A highly spatially resolved ecosystem model for the North West European continental shelf, SARSIA, 86, 423–440, 2001.; Allen, J. I., Holt, J. T., Blackford, J. C., and Proctor, R.: Error quantification of a high-resolution coupled hydrodynamic-ecosystem coastal-ocean model – Part 2: Chlorophyll-a, nutrients and SPM, J. Marine Syst., 68, 381–404, 2007a.; Allen, J. I., Somerfield, P. J., and Gilbert, F. J.: Quantifying uncertainty in high-resolution coupled hydrodynamic-ecosystem models, J. Marine Syst., 64, 3–14, doi:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2006.02.010, 2007b.; Allen, J. I., Aiken, J., Anderson, T. R., Buitenhuis, E., Cornell, S., Geider, R., Haines, K., Hirata, T., Holt, J., Le Quéré, C., Hardman-Mountford, N., Ross, O. N., Sinha, B., and While, J.: Marine ecosystem models for earth systems applications: The MarQUEST experience, J. Marine Syst., 81, 19–33, 2010.; Artioli, Y., Friedrich, J., Gilbert, A. J., McQuatters-Gollop, A., Mee, L. D., Vermaat, J. E., Wulff, F., Humborg, C., Palmeri, L., and Pollehne, F.: Nutrient budgets for European seas: A measure of the effectiveness of nutrient reduction policies, Mar. Pollut. Bull., 56, 1609–1617, doi:10.1016/j.marpolbul.2008.05.027, 2008.; Artioli, Y., Blackford, J. C., Butenschön, M., Holt, J. T., Wakelin, S. L., and Allen, J. I.: The carbonate system of the NW European shelf: sensitivity and model validation, J. Marine Syst., in review.; Aumont, O., Maier-Reimer, E., Blain, S., and Monfray, P.: An ecosystem model of the global ocean including Fe, Si, P colimitations, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 17, 1060, doi:10.1029/2001gb001745, 2003.; Bissinger, J. E., Montagnes, D. J. S., Sharples, J., and Atkinson, D.: Predicting marine phytoplankton maximum growth rates from temperature: Improving on the Eppley curve using quantile regression, Limnol. Oceanogr., 53, 487–493, 2008.; Blackford, J. C.: An analysis of benthic biological dynamics in a North Sea ecosystem model, J. Sea Res., 38, 213–230, 1997.; Blackford, J. C., Allen, J. I., and Gilbert, F. J.: Ecosystem dynamics at six contrasting sites: a generic model study, J. Marine Syst., 52, 191–215, 2004.; Blackford, J. C., Jones, N., Proctor, R., and Holt, J.: Regional scale impacts of distinct CO2 additions in the North Sea, Mar. Pollut. Bull., 56, 1461–1468, doi:10.1016/j.marpolbul.2008.04.048, 2008.; Borges, A. V.: Do we have enough pieces of the jigsaw to integrate CO2 fluxes in the coastal ocean?, Estuaries, 28, 3–27, 2005.; Cadee, G. C. and Hegeman, J.: Phytoplankton in the Marsdiep at the end of the 20th Century; 30 yr monitoring biomass, primary production, and Phaeocystis blooms, J. Sea Res., 48, 97–110, 2002.; Carr, M.-E., Friedrichs, M. A. M., Schmeltz, M., Aita, M. N., Antoine, D., Arrigo, K. R., Asanuma, I., Aumont, O., Barber, R., Behrenfeld, M., Bidigare, R., Buitenhuis, E. T., Campbell, J., Ciotti, A., Dierssen, H., Dowell, M., Dunne, J., Esaias, W., Gentili, B., Gregg, W., Groom, S., Hoepffner, N., Ishizaka, J., Kameda, T., Le Quéré, C., Lohrenz, S., Marra, J., Melin, F., Moore, K., Morel, A., Reddy, T. E., Ryan, J., Scardi, M., Smyth, T., Turpie, K., Tilston, G., Water, K., and Yamanaka, Y.: A comparison of global estimates of marine primary production from ocean color, Deep-Sea Res. II, 11, 741–770, 2006.; Fairall, C. W., Bradley, E. F., Hare, J. E., Grachev, A. A., and Edson, J. B.: Bulk parameterization of air-sea fluxes: updates and verification for the COARE algorithm, J. Climate, 16, 571–591, 2003.; Fernand, L., Nolan, G. D., Raine, R., Chambers, C. E., Dye, S. R., White, M., and Brown, J

 

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